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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.