How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.